The Economic Benefits of Golden Visa and Golden Passport Programs: A Response to Professor Stephenson

在过去的几个月里,有一个健康的辩论on this blog 188bet appabout "golden visa" and "golden passport" (GV/GP) programs,以下报告由透明国际全球见证以及欧洲委员会与这些项目相关的腐败风险。在他的邮递a few weeks ago,Professor Stephenson goes even further,contending that such programs carry no economic benefit and should therefore be abolished.我尊重地不同意。Even taking the status quo as is,这个$28 billionthese programs have brought in over the past decade make them a savvy tool for nations seeking to attract investment.All GV/GP programs are not equal,各国在透明度和滥用可能性方面存在巨大差异。改革高风险的全球价值/全球价值计划,asdiscussed previously在这个博客上,is a better answer than abolishing them,since the concerns raised are straightforward and addressable.

斯蒂芬森教授的职位只关注全球价值/全球价值计划的经济方面,so my response will do the same,but it is worth noting that a lot of the criticism of these programs comes from the ethical questions they raise over whether one should have the "right to buy citizenship." Though this objection is not my main focus here,I can't help but point out the irony of worrying 188bet appabout the unfairness of a system that allows the wealthy to buy citizenship against the background of a system that confers the privileges of citizenship simply by an accident of birth,and in which immigration systems are so badly broken that,例如,移民到美国面临着150年之久waiting time for a green cardthrough routine channels.但我主要关注的是斯蒂芬森教授的论点,即全球价值观/全球价值观计划缺乏足够的economic有利于证明腐败风险的合理性,在这个问题上,我相信他错了。

Let's start with some top-line numbers: The sale of EU passports accounted for as much as 5.2% of Cyprus's GDP in 2017.葡萄牙的计划已经为经济带来了近40亿欧元的回报。由于马耳他在居住权和公民权方面的贸易不断增长,因此它享有预算盈余。Over in the Caribbean,gv/gp项目的收入占国内生产总值的25%。and even the政府大部分收入.这些计划的巨大影响难以否认。斯蒂芬森教授并不质疑这些或类似的统计数据的准确性,但他否认它们的重要性有几个原因,每个都有缺陷:

  • 弗斯特,斯蒂芬森教授声称marginalimpact of these programs that we should be focusing on,这表明它在大中型经济体中可能相当有限。无可否认,无法衡量反事实,and since GV/GP programs are often accompanied by other incentives,要准确指出它们的影响尤其困难。然而,the demographics and motivations of purchasers suggest the marginal impact is high.使用全球价值/总价值计划(全球市场约70%)的大多数投资者over 90%在美国)是富有的中国公民,在这个世界上增长最快的经济体中,在国内拥有良好的经济机会。So why buy real estate abroad,如果不是为了一个可以理解的团体的居住权或公民身份的承诺担心污染,188bet app教育,家里没有安全感.In addition,governments that have created GV/GP programs,如在PortugalandMalaysia,已公布信息,表明在创建此类项目后,投资流入量立即增加。Golden visas have funded ports,hotels and other commercial properties,包括the $20B Hudson Yards in New York.
  • Second,Professor Stephenson argues that increased FDI might not be a good thing in advanced economies,and might mask a country's underlying political and economic problems.这个论点忽略了几个因素。First,外国直接投资的好处尤其明显significantin countries with well-developed financial markets,在那些没有,建议美国等发达经济体拥有发达的金融体系morethan developing countries.Second,and relatedly,some of the legitimate concerns around increased FDI relate to the stock market,因为它的高流动性和随着外资流出而崩溃的可能性。然而,这种风险是有限的,因为大多数的全球价值/全球价值计划都关注房地产而不是股票市场投资,以及几项全球价值/全球价值计划,including the US program,还有创造就业机会的因素。In fact,超过4%美国的就业增长来自其黄金签证计划。Finally,while GV programs might not directly address underlying political or economic reform,foreign investors can become a powerful stakeholder group lobbying for such reform.
  • Third,Professor Stephenson asserts that a large cash infusion is not a good thing,leading to bubbles,resource booms,and more expensive exports.But cash infusions can be very useful for the receiving country,为政府的主要优先事项提供资金,supporting development projects and helping to kickstart the economy.资源繁荣的历史和对外援助对贫穷国家的影响并不积极,but the big GV/GP earners are not in fact poor countries or traditional recipients of foreign aid with weak institutions.此外,最近的研究推翻了传统的资源繁荣“挤出”理论,相反,它暗示这样的繁荣可以benefit更广泛的经济。对,real estate prices could increase,butas in Lisbon,that can be helpful in revitalizing a market,and have positive secondary effects on other sectors (including construction,消费,and tourism to name a few).
  • Finally,斯蒂芬森教授认为,这些项目通过全球视角产生的综合效应只会扭曲投资,减少消费。但促进向投资匮乏地区转移可能具有巨大的积极外部性。GV/GPs provide cheaper sources of financing,这可以看作是扭曲的投资,but could also be growth-inducing.Such programs can also increase,不减少,通过它们对其他部门的溢出效应进行消费。It is impossible to measure the aggregate effect of such resource reallocation,但即使假设总体效应为负,这并不意味着任何一个给定的国家都应该放弃它的计划。事实上,各国都在争夺外国直接投资,and some do better than others;gv/gps是一个强大的工具,不应轻易放弃。

gv/gp项目已经带来了数十亿美元的收入,并被证明是政府收入的宝贵来源。There is undoubtedly a risk of corruption,但各国的风险水平差异很大。Some countries,like Malta and Cyprus,欧盟呼吁采取特别差的政策,作为回应,两国都already enhanced他们的尽职调查程序,像其他国家一样大不列颠联合王国.最近对全球价值/全球价值计划的关注,evidenced in the TI-GW and EC reports,is building pressure for further risk mitigation,and lays out clear pathways to do so.This is the right approach.与其废除这些计划,我们应该推动各国制定明确的标准,适当的风险定价,and the development of best practices.虽然更多的研究可能会对这些项目的成本和收益有更多的了解,the evidence we have now indicates that abolishing these programs would be an extremely costly mistake.

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